Ride the chip cycle without riding it all the way down

SOXL can fall 20% in a single session. That is not really the problem. The problem is having to decide, that same day, whether it is a dip or the turn.

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Portfolio mix
Conditions turning
SOXX
60%
SOXL
8%
Cash
32%
SOXS
0%
The SOXX core never moves. Only the leveraged slice, the cash and the hedge change.

Illustrative only. Not actual or recommended allocations.

The real problem

Getting in is easy. Knowing when to get out is not.

Semiconductors are the most violent thing on the shelf. Everyone tells you to trade SOXL, not hold it. Here is what makes that hard in practice.

01

The speed problem

Chip stocks move faster than anything else you own. By the time you have made up your mind, the move has already happened.

02

The dip-or-turn problem

Every drop looks like a buying opportunity, right up until one of them is not. You cannot tell which is which in the moment.

03

The cycle problem

Semiconductors run in cycles. Every run ends eventually, and nobody rings a bell on the day it does.

04

The sizing problem

You either size it so small it does not matter, or so big it keeps you up at night. There is no comfortable middle.

None of these are knowledge problems. They are execution problems.
That is the part we automate.

How it works

A plain semiconductor ETF core, with leverage layered on top.

We hold an unleveraged semiconductor ETF the whole time. The leveraged part is what moves. Every trading day, the system checks conditions and sets the mix.

When things look good

Leverage on

Core
60%
Leveraged
35%
Cash
5%
Hedge
0%
When things start to turn

Leverage comes off

Core
60%
Leveraged
8%
Cash
32%
Hedge
0%
When it is clearly falling

Hedge goes on

Core
60%
Leveraged
0%
Cash
10%
Hedge
30%

More of the money sits in the plain holding here. Semis move harder than the broad market, so the leveraged slice is deliberately smaller. The core never moves. Only the leveraged slice, the cash and the hedge change.

Core

SOXX

An unleveraged semiconductor ETF tracking the ICE Semiconductor Index. Held in every state.

Leveraged sleeve

SOXL

Three times the daily move of the same semiconductor index. Added only when conditions support it.

Hedge

SOXS

Inverse semiconductor exposure. Applied only in a sustained downtrend, never alongside SOXL.

Checked every day

The market gets read every trading day, whether you are watching or not.

Rules, not feelings

The system does not panic, and it does not get greedy near a high.

A dial, not a switch

Exposure moves up and down in steps instead of all in or all out.

Cash counts

When nothing looks good, sitting in cash is a decision the system makes.

Allocations shown are illustrative examples of how exposure can shift, not actual or recommended allocations. Actual positioning varies with market conditions. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.

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Suitability

Be honest with yourself.

This is for you if:

You set aside a specific slice of your money for higher-risk bets, with the rest in a Core model portfolio

You have lived through a big drop before and did not sell at the bottom

You understand a leveraged ETF can lose value even when the index goes nowhere

This is money you could lose without it changing your life

This is not for you if:

You want steady and predictable

You will need this money in the next few years

A large drop would make you sell

This is money you cannot afford to lose

faq

Questions people ask before they start

Three things. SOXX, an unleveraged semiconductor ETF, is the core and stays in place at all times. SOXL is the leveraged sleeve, tracking three times the daily move of the same semiconductor index. SOXS is the inverse fund used as a hedge. Anything not allocated sits in cash. You can see the exact holdings in your account at any time.

SOXX tracks the ICE Semiconductor Index one for one. SOXL seeks three times the daily move of the same index, using derivatives, and resets that leverage every day. Over any period longer than a day, SOXL will not simply return three times what SOXX returned.

None of them are held by this strategy, but they come up often, so here is how they compare. SMH is an unleveraged semiconductor ETF like SOXX, but it tracks a different index and weights its holdings differently. SOXX is used for the core here because SOXL and SOXS track the same index, so the core, the leveraged sleeve and the hedge all move against the same benchmark. USD seeks two times daily semiconductor exposure rather than three, so it moves less in both directions, and SSG is its inverse counterpart.

You can. The thing to understand is that a leveraged fund resets every day, and semiconductors swing more than almost anything else. A choppy stretch can grind the position down even when the sector ends up roughly where it started. Sitting through that is the hard part.

Because semiconductors move harder. The same amount of leverage produces a much rougher ride here, so more of the money sits in SOXX and less in SOXL.

Four things matter most with leveraged funds. Compounding, because daily resets mean returns over time can differ a lot from three times the index. Correlation, because the fund may not track the semiconductor index as closely as you expect. Derivatives, because these funds use swaps and similar instruments to get their exposure. And holding duration, because the longer you hold, the more the first three can add up. None of these go away because the position is managed. The goal is to spend less time exposed to them, not to remove them.

A lot. Semiconductors are among the most volatile parts of the market, and a leveraged version moves further and faster in both directions. The strategy is designed to reduce exposure and can hedge, but it cannot prevent losses and it will not get out at the top. Only use money you can afford to lose entirely.

Exposure is designed to come down in steps rather than all at once, and a hedge can be applied in a sustained downtrend. It will not call the top, and it does not predict cycles. It reacts to conditions as they change.

No. It is built as a slice. Most people pair it with a Core model portfolio holding the bulk of their money and keep this as the smaller, higher-risk piece. You choose the size.

0.50% per year on assets under management, or $4 a month for accounts under $10,000. The minimum to start is $1,000. Your account is held at Alpaca Securities LLC, a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC. alphaAI Capital never holds your money directly.

Yes, any time. There is no lock-in and no performance fee. You can change how much is allocated, switch strategies, or withdraw.

Stay in the cycle. Stop calling the turns.

$1,000 to start. 0.50% per year. No lock-in, no performance fees.